Key Message Update

Extended periods without rain affects the vegetative development of basic grains

July 2019

July - September 2019

Los tres países se encuentran en fase 2 (estrés)

October 2019 - January 2020

Los tres países se encuentran en fase 2 (estrés)

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The LIX Central America Climate Forum forecast for the August - October quarter a scenario with normal rainfall: in Honduras, specifically in the departments of Choluteca, Valle, Francisco Morazán and Gracias a Dios and in Nicaragua, the Pacific, Central and North regions, and the North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region.

  • In most of the cultivated areas of the region, grain production is in the flowering phase, a determining period to define the upcoming harvest; In the southeastern region of Honduras and the Central and North regions of Nicaragua, du to prolonged days without rains, losses of crops not yet corroborated have been observed, inducing grain losses and affecting vulnerable families.

  • An upward trend in prices is likely, due to commercial speculation, causing stock retention despite the fact that prices have remained stable compared to the previous month, but above the average for corn and below average for beans.

  • Currently, income generation of the most vulnerable families located in regions of subsistence agriculture, which depends mainly on employment in the production of basic grains, will be affected by drought, although in regions that have access to livestock and fish farming will have employment opportunities, as well as in horticultural and tropical fruit production.

  • The families of the poorest farmers who do not have stocks and record crop losses will extend their dependence on the market for their food supply are likely to engage in coping strategies, acquiring less nutritious food, reducing the quantity and regularity of food intake and migrating to urban centers of the region to obtain the income that allows them to satisfy their basic needs.

  • Most vulnerable households in the region will find themselves in stress (IPC, Phase 2), due to the deterioration in livelihoods that will limit their access to basic non-food needs; however, a more limited number of poorer households in isolated communities could be limiting food rations and using negative coping strategies, finding themselves in Crisis (IPC, Phase 3) Acute Food Insecurity, particularly in Honduras.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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