Key Message Update

Primera crops in areas of subsistence agriculture affected by the prolongation of the dry spell

August 2018

August - September 2018

Los tres países se encuentran en fase mínima.

October 2018 - January 2019

Los tres países se encuentran en fase mínima.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Maize and bean Primera crops in areas of subsistence agriculture of the dry corridor recorded losses (partial and total) due to the impact of the prolonged mid-season dry spell, mainly during the phase of vegetative development and flowering, with differentiated impacts and with average losses of 75% in corn and 76% in beans.

  • According to the climate forecast of the LVI Climate Forum in Central America, rains are expected to be below normal for most of the region during the August / October quarter, including in the Dry Corridor, which could lead to losses of basic grain crops during the Postrera cycle.

  • The availability of grains in the markets is average, with predominance of local red beans. However, due to the corn price increases the regional markets, a supply of imported grain (white and yellow) has been observed, whose original destination is the industrial process and not domestic consumption.

  • Corn prices have been affected by speculation related to losses in the Primera agricultural campaign. Red beans show greater stability thanks to the previous harvest still available and the flows that come from the unaffected production areas.

  • The households of subsistence farmers depend mainly on their own crops, on the income generated locally by agricultural wages and on the temporary employment in the coffee sector whose demand starts in some regions at the end of September, however, it is likely that this source is limited by the fall in prices in the international coffee market.

  • The majority of households in subsistence agriculture areas are in the minimum food insecurity (IPC, Phase 1) thanks to food reserves that should last one month. However, farmers settled in the affected areas with severe damages due to the prolongation of the dry spell in Honduras that have exhausted their reserves and with no sources of employment, will be in a more critical situation from September.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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