Guidance Documents

Integrating Acute Malnutrition and Mortality into Scenario Development

January 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Summary

This paper is part of a series of guidance documents developed by FEWS NET on integrating advanced sectoral concepts and techniques into scenario development. Scenario development is an important methodology underpinning FEWS NET’s food security analysis and projections of the evolution of food security in a particular area. The eight-step process (outlined below) involves the development of specific assumptions about key factors or shocks (anomalies), analysis of how these factors will impact food and income sources of the populations of concern, and consideration of likely responses by various actors. FEWS NET analysts combine these assumptions with a strong understanding of current conditions to estimate future food security outcomes and designate the level of acute food insecurity using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the global standard for classifying food security. FEWS NET uses the scenario development methodology to prepare its Food Security Outlook reports, which provide decision makers with early warning and projections of food security outcomes eight months ahead.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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