Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Forecast above-average June to September rainfall is likely to cause flooding in eastern areas of South Sudan.  

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

Rainfall totals through June have been 5-30 percent below average in large parts of western Nigeria.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

As of July 5, Al Hudaydah and Salif ports remain open as the military offensive in Al Hudaydah City continues. 

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

There was above-average June rainfall in parts of western and central Ethiopia, and the forecast indicates an increased risk of flooding in Awash and lower Blue Nile.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Current Observations

Approximately 2,700 households have been displaced due to escalating armed conflict between in Tukaraq, Sool region.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

Increased ethnic fighting in South Kivu province and Kasai region is cause for growing concern of escalating ethnic and regional conflict and displacement in coming months.

Reason for Concern

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

Current Observations

According to ACLED, 134 conflict incidents, resulting in over 600 fatalities, occurred between June 15 and 23. 

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Lower 2018  cereal harvests across the region are likely to be offset by carryover stocks in South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Forecast above-average June to September rainfall is likely to cause flooding in eastern areas of South Sudan.  

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Rainfall totals through June have been 5-30 percent below average in large parts of western Nigeria.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

As of July 5, Al Hudaydah and Salif ports remain open as the military offensive in Al Hudaydah City continues. 

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

There was above-average June rainfall in parts of western and central Ethiopia, and the forecast indicates an increased risk of flooding in Awash and lower Blue Nile.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Somalia

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Approximately 2,700 households have been displaced due to escalating armed conflict between in Tukaraq, Sool region.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Increased ethnic fighting in South Kivu province and Kasai region is cause for growing concern of escalating ethnic and regional conflict and displacement in coming months.

Afghanistan

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

According to ACLED, 134 conflict incidents, resulting in over 600 fatalities, occurred between June 15 and 23. 

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Lower 2018  cereal harvests across the region are likely to be offset by carryover stocks in South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Peak needs 2018

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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