Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

The exchange rate on the parallel market stands around 250 SSP/USD, a depreciation from late last year but appreciation from early 2018.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

According to the DTM, between March 18 and 31, nearly 10 000 movements were recorded, with a majority of which were arrivals in Borno and Adamawa states. 

Reason for Concern

The 2019 Gu/long rains season has so far been well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Current Observations

Rainfall during the Gu/long rains through May 5 is less than 55 percent of normal acorss much of the Horn of Africa. 

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

Current Observations

According to OCHA, over 55,000 people were displaced in April due to conflict by non-state actors in Nangahar province, mainly in Khogyani and Sherzad districts. 

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

Current Observations

The Ebola outbreak continues in North Kivu, in part due to continuing conflict, limiting some households’ access to livelihoods and markets.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Preliminary analysis suggests cumulative rainfall totals in southwestern and central areas of the region are the lowest on record.  

Reason for Concern

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

Current Observations

In Cabo Delgado, as of April 30, an estimated 21,000 people are displaced and living in accommodation centers due to flooding.  

Reason for Concern

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Current Observations

The 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but limited seed availability may lead to another year of below-average crop production.   

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

The exchange rate on the parallel market stands around 250 SSP/USD, a depreciation from late last year but appreciation from early 2018.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

According to the DTM, between March 18 and 31, nearly 10 000 movements were recorded, with a majority of which were arrivals in Borno and Adamawa states. 

Horn of Africa

The 2019 Gu/long rains season has so far been well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Rainfall during the Gu/long rains through May 5 is less than 55 percent of normal acorss much of the Horn of Africa. 

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Afghanistan

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

According to OCHA, over 55,000 people were displaced in April due to conflict by non-state actors in Nangahar province, mainly in Khogyani and Sherzad districts. 

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

The Ebola outbreak continues in North Kivu, in part due to continuing conflict, limiting some households’ access to livelihoods and markets.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Preliminary analysis suggests cumulative rainfall totals in southwestern and central areas of the region are the lowest on record.  

Mozambique

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

In Cabo Delgado, as of April 30, an estimated 21,000 people are displaced and living in accommodation centers due to flooding.  

Madagascar

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

The 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but limited seed availability may lead to another year of below-average crop production.   

Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Food security outlook story map

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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