Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

The exchange rate on the parallel market stands around 250 SSP/USD, a depreciation from late last year but appreciation from early 2018.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

An estimated 280,000 people newly displaced between November 2018 and April 2019 will be targeted with food and non-food assistance over the next 90 days. 

Reason for Concern

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

Current Observations

Precipitation for the 2018/19 season is above-average across most of the country and moisture conditions are anticipated to be sufficient for spring wheat planting in March.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

Current Observations

The Ebola outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri, the largest in the country’s history, combined with regional insecurity, is limiting population movement and access to food. 

Reason for Concern

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Current Observations

The 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but limited seed availability may lead to another year of below-average crop production.   

Reason for Concern

The 2018 Deyr/short rains season was well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought.

Current Observations

Hotter-than-normal land surface temperatures are driving accelerated pasture and water depletion as the January to March dry season progresses.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Preliminary analysis suggests cumulative rainfall totals in southwestern and central areas of the region are the lowest on record.  

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

The exchange rate on the parallel market stands around 250 SSP/USD, a depreciation from late last year but appreciation from early 2018.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

An estimated 280,000 people newly displaced between November 2018 and April 2019 will be targeted with food and non-food assistance over the next 90 days. 

Afghanistan

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

Precipitation for the 2018/19 season is above-average across most of the country and moisture conditions are anticipated to be sufficient for spring wheat planting in March.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

The Ebola outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri, the largest in the country’s history, combined with regional insecurity, is limiting population movement and access to food. 

Madagascar

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

The 2018/19 rainy season has been average to above-average in the south, but limited seed availability may lead to another year of below-average crop production.   

Horn of Africa

The 2018 Deyr/short rains season was well below average across much of the region. Although the 2018 Gu/Genna/long rains season was one of the wettest on record, many pastoralists are still recovering from the effects of the 2016/2017 drought.

Hotter-than-normal land surface temperatures are driving accelerated pasture and water depletion as the January to March dry season progresses.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Preliminary analysis suggests cumulative rainfall totals in southwestern and central areas of the region are the lowest on record.  

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Peak needs 2018

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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