Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

There is high concern for food security outcomes in Pibor and Greater Kapoeta, where cattle raiding persists, depriving many households of regular access to a key food source.  

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

In March 2018, more than 2.2 million people in the northeast received food assistance. In Michika and Madagali LGAs of Adamawa State, response needs are likely much higher than the 43,000 people reached.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Wheat flour imports increased and were at or near monthly imports requirements in March 2018, following declines in January and February. 

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

Rainfall declined slightly in parts of southeastern Ethiopia in April, but persistent and well distributed rainfall into early May continues to contribute to above normal Gu seasonal performance.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Current Observations

Due to this and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels have sharply increased and flooding has occurred in several areas, including Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, and Togdheer.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

As conflict continues in Ituri and Nord Kivu Provinces, internal displacement and external displacement, primarily to Uganda, is ongoing.   

Reason for Concern

Conflict remains widespread and continues to disrupt livelihoods. Below-average precipitation will likely reduce yields for staple crops including wheat. Rangeland conditions are poor in some areas, particularly in the northwest and north.

Current Observations

Preliminary reports indicate that livestock prices in the driest areas of the northwest and north have declined by 20 – 30 percent, reflecting poor body conditions and atypical sales.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Because of below-normal yields and crop failure, the main harvest will only temporarily improve household food availability, however, in some cases not at all.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

There is high concern for food security outcomes in Pibor and Greater Kapoeta, where cattle raiding persists, depriving many households of regular access to a key food source.  

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

In March 2018, more than 2.2 million people in the northeast received food assistance. In Michika and Madagali LGAs of Adamawa State, response needs are likely much higher than the 43,000 people reached.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Wheat flour imports increased and were at or near monthly imports requirements in March 2018, following declines in January and February. 

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Rainfall declined slightly in parts of southeastern Ethiopia in April, but persistent and well distributed rainfall into early May continues to contribute to above normal Gu seasonal performance.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Somalia

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Due to this and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels have sharply increased and flooding has occurred in several areas, including Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, and Togdheer.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

As conflict continues in Ituri and Nord Kivu Provinces, internal displacement and external displacement, primarily to Uganda, is ongoing.   

Afghanistan

Conflict remains widespread and continues to disrupt livelihoods. Below-average precipitation will likely reduce yields for staple crops including wheat. Rangeland conditions are poor in some areas, particularly in the northwest and north.

Preliminary reports indicate that livestock prices in the driest areas of the northwest and north have declined by 20 – 30 percent, reflecting poor body conditions and atypical sales.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Because of below-normal yields and crop failure, the main harvest will only temporarily improve household food availability, however, in some cases not at all.

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Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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