Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

ICRC has suspended their operations in Leer following an uptick in fighting across central Unity State. 

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

In March 2018, more than 2.2 million people in the northeast received food assistance. In Michika and Madagali LGAs of Adamawa State, response needs are likely much higher than the 43,000 people reached.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

According to data from ACLED, 3,090 conflict incidents have occurred in Yemen between January 1 and April 30, 2018.

Reason for Concern

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Current Observations

Rainfall declined slightly in parts of southeastern Ethiopia in April, but persistent and well distributed rainfall into early May continues to contribute to above normal Gu seasonal performance.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Current Observations

Due to this and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels have sharply increased and flooding has occurred in several areas, including Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, and Togdheer.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Current Observations

Heavy rainfall in eastern DRC, where conflict is already disrupting agricultural practices, is concerning for Season B crop production.

Reason for Concern

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

Current Observations

Remote sensing data indicates that rangeland conditions in parts of the northwest are the worst on record for early May, with data since 2002.

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

In Mozambique, a recent assessment determined that in remote southern areas there was either no main season harvest or significantly below average crop yields.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

ICRC has suspended their operations in Leer following an uptick in fighting across central Unity State. 

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

In March 2018, more than 2.2 million people in the northeast received food assistance. In Michika and Madagali LGAs of Adamawa State, response needs are likely much higher than the 43,000 people reached.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

According to data from ACLED, 3,090 conflict incidents have occurred in Yemen between January 1 and April 30, 2018.

Ethiopia

Severe drought over the past year has resulted in very large livestock losses in Ethiopia’s Somali Region, which has sharply reduced household food and income access.

Rainfall declined slightly in parts of southeastern Ethiopia in April, but persistent and well distributed rainfall into early May continues to contribute to above normal Gu seasonal performance.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Somalia

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons that have led to severe drought in some areas and, consequently, large-scale livestock losses and poor production. Furthermore, the April to June 2018 Gu season is forecast to be below average.  

Due to this and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels have sharply increased and flooding has occurred in several areas, including Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, and Togdheer.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused ongoing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access their livelihoods.

Heavy rainfall in eastern DRC, where conflict is already disrupting agricultural practices, is concerning for Season B crop production.

Afghanistan

Conflict has expanded in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Drought in the north and northwest will reduce yields for 2018 main season wheat and other crops. Rangeland conditions are also very poor in some of these areas.

Remote sensing data indicates that rangeland conditions in parts of the northwest are the worst on record for early May, with data since 2002.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

In Mozambique, a recent assessment determined that in remote southern areas there was either no main season harvest or significantly below average crop yields.

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Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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